We already know were going to get warm, but how much rain are we going to get? At the moment it appears the heaviest rainfall will occur along a Warm Front that will stall to our north. Waves of pressure will ride along this stalled front over the next few days bringing periods of scattered light precipitation to the region. Below is an image from the European Model showing total precipitation through Monday.
As you can see, rainfall amounts range from as little as .2 inches across the southern zones to almost an inch in the Northwestern Catskills, where topography may enhance the rainfall a bit. You can clearly see where the stalled warm front is and the heavier rainfall amounts occurring north of that boundary. This is certainly a better scenario for us, seeing how we have a lot of ice build up in some smaller creeks and streams, a partially frozen ground and a deep snowpack, any bit of rain brings with it, a concern for flooding. It will still be a good idea to clear your gutters and storm drains so all of the snow melt and rainfall has a place to go. Below is another image, this one from the GFS model which also clearly shows the swath of heavier rain situated to out north.
Again, you can see that the GFS model and Euro show the heaviest rainfall to our north, so at the moment things look good for avoiding a heavy rainfall. The final position of this stalled warm front will determine where that heavy rain sets up, as long as it doesn’t shift to far south we are looking at a general .25 to 1.00 rainfall across the region. Overall we are looking at a chance of scattered showers and rain tomorrow, right through to Sunday. On Monday morning a front will clear the region and return us to drier weather and more seasonal temps for Christmas.