•Clouds will continue to spread from south to north this morning into the afternoon
•Precipitation will also spread from south to north by mid to late afternoon
•Ulster, Dutchess, Sullivan, Delaware, Orange, Westchester, Rockland, Putnam under a Freezing Rain Advisory
•As we were concerned with, the models have underestimated the cold air in the region overnight and this morning
•Temps are not only colder but are also moderating slower than forecasted.
•Areas of freezing rain may linger much later in isolated areas across the region this afternoon
•All areas still look to change to rain by this evening
As of this morning, some of our concerns from the previous two forecast blogs have come to fruition. Temperatures this morning are much colder then the forecast models were depicting and they also appear to be moderating much slower. Four more counties have been added to the freezing rain advisory list, bringing the total to 6 of our 9 counties with advisories for freezing rain. Clouds will continue to stream north this morning and the sun across the northern counties will slowly be replaced with overcast. It then becomes a race between the moisture pushing north and the slowly rising temperatures through the day, just how quickly the moisture arrives, verses how long we stay below freezing, will determine how long of a period of freezing rain we see. Some of the short range models have the cold air hanging tough in some spots for a good portion of the afternoon, this will certainly lead to areas of treacherous travel. The first area of concern will be our southern counties, where the freezing rain will begin first, then the concern will spread north during the early afternoon. Keep a close eye on the temperatures at your location or if you are traveling, and remember it may fall as liquid, but if any surface is 32 degrees or below, it can freeze on contact.
A look at the current radar shows some of freezing rain slowly creeping north.
And the latest HRRR model which is a high resolution model, designed to pick up on the small details we see temps below freezing trying to hold on though a good portion of the afternoon and evening, which spells trouble for a longer duration of freezing rain in some places this afternoon.
In closing, the concerns from Friday, that areas of freezing rain may have an extended duration in places across the region this afternoon continues. Keep and eye on the thermometer and we will keep you posted for the remainder of the day, both here and Facebook. Feel free to visit the previous forecasts in the archive for more details as to why we forecasted this concern.