A rather unsettled day shaping up for our Monday across the Hudson Valley.
A weak low pressure system will pass by to our north, and drag scattered rain and snow showers along with it. During the morning, it will be cold enough so that anything that falls… will fall as snow. The snow showers should be light, and we expect no accumulation. If there is a burst of snow… roads could become slick, so just something to keep in mind for the Monday morning commute.
As the day wears on… temperatures are expected to rise quite nicely on Monday.
With forecast high temperatures in the upper 40s to around 50 degrees… any snow showers will certainly have changed over to rain showers. Even still… the showers are expected to be few and far between, and brief where they do occur. Just be on the look out for potential wet roads during the day on Monday.
Tuesday Snow Potential
We’ve been monitoring this event for a few days now… and while the track of this system is still very much in doubt… we continue to be concerned that this could be a significant headache on Tuesday afternoon. A wave of low pressure will speed southeast from Canada, and spread a brief burst of precipitation along its path. In the areas that it’s cold enough… this will be a burst of moderate to heavy snow, lasting 3 to 6 hours on average.
The major question… is where does the storm track, and who sees the snow?
As of late Sunday night, we’re starting to see the data come together a bit. Here is the GFS model on Tuesday afternoon…
The GFS model continues to have the storm track from the Great Lakes thru central NJ. A track just to our south, would very likely put the Hudson Valley in a band of moderate snow late on Tuesday and into Tuesday evening. But what about the NAM (North American Model)? That too… is now highlighting our concerns…
The simulated radar of the NAM shows the snow over the Hudson Valley as well… slightly further north than the GFS model, but the solutions are very similar. Also joining the party, is the Canadian model (seems fitting as this storm will originate in Canada). The Canadian model has a solution very similar to the GFS model.
So what does this mean? Well… it’s a pretty rotten April Fool’s joke (albeit 1 day early). If these solutions were accurate, it would mean snow moving into the Hudson Valley in the early afternoon on Tuesday. The snow would fall moderate to heavy for about 3 to 6 hours, and then exit the area as quickly as it entered. Temperatures would be in the mid to upper 30s when the snow began… and likely at or just above freezing during the event. The snow could fall hard enough… to accumulate on grass (and possibly even paved surfaces). This could have the potential to cause big headaches for the Tuesday PM commute. Here’s a rough idea (**NOT A FORECAST**) of what the GFS Model projects could fall Tuesday afternoon.
The GFS model points the storm toward the southern half of the Hudson Valley, with these snowfall amounts (1 to 3 inches) falling in a 6 hour window or less. Under this scenario, the snow would likely fall hard enough, and fast enough, to accumulate.
With all of this said… a tiny shift in the track could change everything. The European model has the storm track about 50 miles further south than the GFS model… and our area narrowly misses the event. So while the situation is not etched in stone… right now the computer model scorecard is 3-1 in favor of an accumulating snow event Tuesday afternoon.
It goes without saying that we’ll continue to be all over this situation. Expect updates during the day on Monday, as we begin to iron out the details.