Monday: Mostly sunny and seasonable. High in the upper 50s to low 60s.
Monday Night: Partly cloudy. Low in the low 40s.
Tuesday: Sunshine mixing with a few high afternoon clouds, very warm. High in the upper 60s to near 70°.
Quite a bite to the wind across the Hudson Valley on Sunday. Poughkeepsie topped out at 58° and Montgomery at 57°, but the strong NW breeze made it feel chilly. The surprise of the day was the line of showers and thunderstorms that rolled across the valley between 2am and 4am. The gusts caused some power outages across the area… my house included (in SW Ulster). The rainfall was quite light in most areas south of Kingston, but the wind gusts and some thunder gave some of us a rude awakening.
Now, we’ve got some very nice weather coming for this time of year. Monday looks relatively nice, as the winds should die down quite a bit… and the sun shines brightly. The nicest day we’ve seen in quite some time, is heading our way for Tuesday. Afternoon highs on Tuesday could approach 70° in parts of the Hudson Valley, which is more than 10 degrees above average. A cold front presses toward the region in the early morning hours on Wednesday, spreading some scattered showers across the area, and dropping the temps back down to near average for this time of year.
We just released our Winter Outlook on Sunday, and as if on cue, we’ve got some major changes coming at the end of this week.
Think back for a moment to last week, you might remember that Hawaii was watching Hurricane Ana, and the storm passed just to the southwest of it, before curving back out to sea. As of this post (Sunday Night) the remnants of Hurricane Ana are now approaching the west coast of Canada. That energy will move across the US during the week, and that low pressure you see in the image above… that’s what’s left of Hurricane Ana.
Now, this storm doesn’t have tropical characteristics… it doesn’t have damaging winds… it’s just the same energy. But it’s a piece of strong energy, and as it moves across southern Canada, it will grab some cold, Canadian… almost arctic air, and drag it south and east toward the northeast US. As it does so, it will spread rain showers mixing with snow showers… and in the mountains, we could see the first accumulating snowfall of the year. Once the storm passes through, the NW winds will likely generate accumulating lake effect snows in the traditional lake effect areas.
Now… there is a lot of uncertainty over how things will play out this week. The computer models have been struggling with the track and structure of the storm, so it bears watching as we move through the week. What this could mean for the Hudson Valley are some rain showers late Halloween night, possibly mixing with or changing to wet snow showers… with no accumulation. The Catskills could see a period of wet snow that could lead to minor accumulations. Either way, next weekend looks very cold and unsettled, with highs in the low to mid 40s. We’ll likely have updates each day as we get a better idea of how this will play out.
And another LONG day draws to a close. Hopefully you’ll understand if I don’t ramble too much tonight. We hope that you enjoyed the Winter Outlook today. We spent nearly a month researching and pulling data together. The early feedback has been tremendous. We had hoped the outlook would go over well, and so far it’s been even better than we could have expected. I’m rambling… so that means time to shut down. Thank you so, so much for all the support. I’ve been a part of HVW for about 4 months, and you guys have made today a day to remember for me. Your kind words and feedback make all the time and energy completely worth it all. So thank you for that! Hope you had a great weekend, and hope you have a great Monday.