Monday: Clouds mixed with a few breaks of sunshine, a touch milder. High in the mid 40s, (Catskills: upper 30s). Calm winds.
Monday Night: Mainly cloudy skies, with some patchy freezing drizzle possible after midnight. Low in the upper 20s to low 30s. Chance of precipitation 30%.
Tuesday: Cloudy with patchy drizzle and scattered afternoon showers. High in the low to mid 40s. Chance of rain 60%. Calm winds.
Sunday was a very typical mid December day across the Hudson Valley. Poughkeepsie saw a high of 43°, Montgomery saw a high of 45°. The average high for this time of year is a crisp 41°, so just a couple degrees above average to close out the weekend.
Monday is quiet… just a lot of clouds in the area. But a weak storm system presses east on Tuesday, and will spread some light rain showers into the Hudson Valley during the afternoon. We’re not looking at much rain, but it will dampen things… and make for a potentially rain slickened PM commute. Those showers will last into the night, and struggle to exit the area on Wednesday. From there… we’ll see a few mild days, but still largely quiet.
Long Range Threats?
As we look well down the road, into next weekend… things could potentially get busy… and in the weather world, busy means stormy. We’ve got a detailed conversation in the Sunday Outlook that explains the changes we could see between now and the end of December. We’re going from a very zonal flow, which involves a lot of mild air off the Pacific Ocean… to a flow that could have it’s origins in the arctic. But more specifically… the European computer model creates a potent storm system, and runs it up the east coast:
The hits just keep on coming. This is 6 days away, and by no means ‘likely’ to happen at this point. But the pattern is changing, and the European model has sniffed something out, that really bears watching. A strong low pressure moves along the southern branch of the jet stream, and then slides up the coast over the weekend. Just in advance of this, arctic air is projected to sink into the northeast… and if everything happens as the model is currently suggesting, we could be talking about snow next weekend. For now… we’re just watching how things unfold… as this doesn’t even show up in the HVW 5 day forecast yet. We just wanted to share… as the holidays are fast approaching, and many fans are dreaming of a white Christmas. Sometimes dreams come true… could this be one of those times? We’ll have to wait and see.
So that’s enough for one day… I think there’s plenty here for you to absorb. I took the Munchkin to the bowling alley today for a classmate’s birthday party. Her friend turned 5… and the Munchkin is only 3, so she was the youngest bowler in the group (from what I could tell). She did pretty darn good, rolling the ball down the lane all by herself (with the help of bumpers), and getting mad at Daddy when he tried to help. But she was a handful… to say the least. Kids love to test their boundaries, and she was running all over the place and ignoring me. I tried to wrangle her in… but eventually we just had to call it a day, before things got out of control. We had a blast, but she wore me out… so I’m calling it a night. Hope you had a great weekend… and see you for the Tuesday Outlook.