Monday: Mostly cloudy and windy… a few flurries possible. High in the mid 30s [Catskills upper 20s]. Winds NW at 10 to 15mph. Wind chills in the 20s.
Monday Night: Mostly cloudy with a light breeze. Low in the upper teens [Catskills low teens]. Winds northwest around 5mph.
Tuesday: Clouds giving way to increasing sunshine. High in the low 30s. Light west wind around 5mph.
The rain made for a washout across the Hudson Valley… unfortunately, it wasn’t the rain that was the story. Moisture arrived into the Hudson Valley about 3 hours ahead of schedule… while temperatures were in the upper 20s. From there… Sunday highs didn’t get beyond 35° across the area… and some locations didn’t even crack the 32 degree mark. The result was a widespread ice storm, with hundreds of traffic accidents and road closures… even I-87 and I-84 were closed for a period of time.
So how did this happen… and what went wrong??
HVW had the threat identified on Saturday. We knew that the morning temps on Sunday would be dangerously cold… and we knew that moisture would begin working it’s way into the region during the morning. But the precipitation was earlier and heavier than expected. If the rain arrived when expected (9am to 12pm), there would have been a period of light freezing rain, followed by a mostly cold rain. There would have been travel headaches, but more of an inconvenience than the havoc that ensued.
Instead, the rain began to fall between 7 and 10am… and quickly was steady. That allowed rain to quickly coat all paved surfaces, before road crews could address it. Widespread horrendous conditions ensued… for a recap of those, please check out the Facebook page. Hopefully you got thru the day unscathed.
Things quiet down a bit on Monday. Temps don’t get too cold behind the storm… it will get windy however, so plan for some gusty conditions. The worst weather story for Monday will be the threat of black ice Monday morning… so please take that into consideration.
Tuesday looks cold and quiet as well. Sunshine should be dominant, but temps won’t get much past the freezing mark. We’re tracking a clipper system that could bring some light snow to the area on Wednesday… but the track is a tough call… so we’ll follow it closely. You can follow along with us on the HVW 5 Day Forecast.
This weather pattern continues to be absolutely brutal. I’m talking from a snow lover perspective… but with the weather we saw on Sunday… I think everyone would agree the weather pattern is miserable.
I cannot remember a winter where there has been absolutely nothing to talk about… for such a long time. Sure, we’re having our weather events, snow to sleet to freezing rain. But our biggest storm was almost 2 months ago now… and there is NO sign of anything comparable.
What I’m talking about is computer models. You see… computer models are like Christmas presents to guys like Alex and me. The model runs every 6 or 12 hours, and we get to look at the data, and see if a snowstorm is coming down the pike. And each winter… on a weekly basis (if not more often)… a major nor’easter would pop up on the computer model. Now, 3/4 of the time it never plays out, and the storm was a mirage… but that’s where Alex and I get to do what we do… and that’s separate the computer model truth from the fiction.
But this year… nothing. Day after day, week after week… nothing. The computer models can’t even spin up a rogue phantom nor’easter for us to analyze. It’s gotten so bad, that last week… I was sending Alex archived computer model images I have, of last winter’s blizzard… just so we could remember what the “good old days” were like. It continues to be a pattern, that does not produce any large scale winter storms. We’ll continue to see a few small scale clipper systems, with possibly one or two this week… but otherwise, our nickel and dime winter continues… one small storm after the next. A meteorological snore.
And speaking of snore… I need to get some sleep. A very long Sunday it was… Happy Martin Luther King Jr. Day! For some of us, it’s just another day off from work. But when you stop and think about the things that this man did, the courage he had, and his vision of how great this country could be one day. Let’s all at least take a minute out of our day, to remember and appreciate him. Hopefully, he would look at where we are today and be proud. We’ve still got a long way to go… but we’ve come a long way too. Have a good one, everybody!