Monday: Partly cloudy, breezy and warm, with comfortable humidity. High in the mid 80s. Winds SW 5 to 15mph.
Monday Night: Increasing clouds. Low in the upper 50s to near 60°.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, breezy and cooler, with scattered showers possible during the morning. Increasing chance of steadier, heavier rain as the afternoon wears on. High in the mid 70s. Chance of rain 60%. Winds SE at 10 to 15mph.
The week gets off to a great start on Monday, with partly cloudy skies… comfortable humidity… and afternoon highs right near what we’d expect for this time of year. But we’ll see an increasing southerly flow in advance of the approaching storm system. So enjoy your Monday weather while you can.
Tuesday is looking very unsettled, as an area of low pressure moves into the Great Lakes region. The counter-clockwise flow around that storm will translate into a southeasterly flow off the ocean. Tuesday looks very cloudy, and much cooler. Temperatures will likely struggle into the mid 70s… which should help to keep the atmosphere stable. However, the storm will also have a good bit of shear and upward motion associated with the negatively tilted trough… which could help to destabilize the atmosphere. So in layperson’s terms… we’re not expecting a widespread severe weather event by any stretch, but an isolated storm can’t be ruled out at the onset of the storm.
The real concern from this storm system… is the rain. I mentioned the negatively tilted trough… well that helps generate lift, and could enhance the rainfall across the Hudson Valley. Below is the GFS model’s rainfall projection for Tuesday and Wednesday, which is a good blend of all the data at this time:
Exactly where the heaviest rain falls, likely will not be determined until the storm begins to impact the Hudson Valley. But 1.0 to 2.5 inches of rainfall, is a very real possibility. With a soaking rain looking likely Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, expect to see some flood watches posted across the Hudson Valley. It’s going to be a fluid situation, as the storm unfolds Tuesday night… so while the details will need to be ironed out as we go… expect periods of moderate to heavy rain, Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
We’ll have updates on the storm potential Monday night or early Tuesday as needed, but it’s looking like after a nice start to our week… some ugly weather awaits us on Tuesday and Wednesday. Beyond that… a return to cool, Canadian air appears likely to close the week… but first thing’s first, lets focus on what’s ahead of us.
The Weather Munchkin skipped her nap on Sunday, so I’m completely wiped out… that means the chatty commentary (also known as rambling) will have to wait until tomorrow. Have a great Monday!