In a matter of 36 hours… virtually all of the computer data has begun to point toward an event, that will no doubt be a historic one. The only question is for who?
If you followed the Facebook page on Saturday, you have seen the information roll in through the day. So lets do a quick run down of how this will play out. We’re going to use the GFS computer model to tell the story. (special thanks to Dr. Ryan Maue and Weatherbell Analytics for these great maps)
An Alberta clipper will track thru the Ohio Valley and by mid day on Monday, it will already begin to spread light snow into the Hudson Valley… well in advance of the actual nor’easter. The storm jumps off the coast of North Carolina and begins to rapidly deepen.
By Monday evening, the storm continues to strengthen. It moves northeast a bit, and will be somewhere east of Virginia. You can see that the isobars (lines of equal pressure) around the storm are becoming more compact. That’s a sign of intensification, and also means the winds will begin to increase. Light snow continues to fall across the Hudson Valley… but then the storm explodes!….
The storm presses almost due north… and the snow shield blossoms intensely. Heavy snow and wind will be felt from New Jersey to Boston. Here in the Hudson Valley… temperatures in the teens with heavy snow appear likely. Winds will begin to howl out of the north/northeast. Travel will become extremely dangerous, if not impossible…
By Tuesday morning… Bombogenesis. The Hudson Valley continues to be plastered by heavy snow and wind. Travel anywhere from Atlantic City NJ to southern Maine will be impossible. Snowfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour will be common. Blizzard Conditions across New England will drift the snow over 5 to 7 feet… yes, feet.
By Tuesday afternoon… we’re still within the grasp of this storm. Don’t be deceived by the lighter snowfall rates depicted by this image… temperatures will be so cold, and the winds will be so strong, that the storm will still be in full swing. Blowing and drifting will be possible, even here in the Hudson Valley. The storm continues to strengthen pressure wise… but has begun to “snow itself out” if you will.
The storm finally begins to pull away from the Hudson Valley by Tuesday evening. Snow will begin to taper off Tuesday night, and when the sun rises on Wednesday…. the great cleanup begins.
A Couple Thoughts
The crucial question… is just where this storm tracks, because someone is going to get over 3 feet of snow from this storm… the question is: “Will it be the Hudson Valley?” If the European model is correct, the answer is yes… but the GFS model depicted has the heaviest snow east of us by about 50 miles.
Normally… for every 1 inch of liquid, you can expect to get 10″ of snow. Temperatures are going to be so cold… that the ratio will change. For every 1 inch of liquid, we could be looking at 20″ or 25″ of fluffy snow. The European model prints out around 2″ of liquid for this event… so you do the math.
This storm has the potential…. the key word being potential…. to be as big as the Superstorm of 1993. If you’ve followed HVW for any length of time… you know that storm is not one we throw around lightly. I (personally) have never forecasted a storm that I dared make the comparison… until now. The exact track of this storm will not be the difference between rain & snow…. or 6 inches and a foot. The exact track of THIS storm will be the difference between 1 foot… and 3 feet.
We’ll have updates on Facebook thru the day on Sunday, and we’ll try to have a special afternoon post here as well… updating on the status of where everything stands.