As of this afternoon the trend continues to be a long duration snowfall of varying intensity, with minor snowfall accumulations likely. As we mentioned in the morning update, all signs are that a stronger storm is unlikely and more drawn out light to moderate snowfall will occur. At the moment there is still a good bit of uncertainty in some areas, and there are a few things that can cause the snowfall forecast to swing in either direction. Right now it appears the heaviest streak of snow should occur across the northern parts of our region, with less accumulations as you head south. Lets hit a few bullet points on how things look at the moment.
•Snow Begins after midnight Wednesday
•Snow may linger into Friday AM
•Snow intensity will vary from light to moderate
•Accumulations of 6-12 inches across northern zones with localized higher amounts possible in the Catskills (See Zone Map)
•Accumulations of 5-8 inches across southern zones with less the further South you go, less then 5 inches possible in these extreme southern zones (See Zone Map)
•Very cold temps mean, very dry/high ratio snowfall, roads may remain slick for the entire duration of the storm
•Any shift in the track may increase or decrease the snowfall forecast, will continue to hone this down over the next 24 hours.
Important to note:We still remain concerned that the 24 hour trend with this storm continues to be lower accumulations, weaker storm and further South. These were all trends we mentioned could happen, and were the reason we have been very conservative on this storm so far. There is nothing saying these trends may not continue over the next 24 hours, leaving us with an even less impressive storm threat by late tonight and tomorrow morning. What makes forecasting nature so intriguing, is the fact that things could ultimately swing in the opposite direction and towards a snowier scenario. Everything is based on science,trends,patterns,history and probability, at the moment the forecast above is the most responsible based on that list. Below is the first and possibly not final, official snowfall forecast for the Hudson Valley zones.
Subject to change over the next 24 hours:
•ZONES- 1,2 : 8-16 inches with the highest accumulations across the Northern half of the Catskills
•ZONES- 3,4 : 6-12 inches with the higher amounts falling from about Kingston North.
•ZONES- 5,6,7 : 5-10 inches with the highest amounts falling North of the Mid HV dotted line
•ZONES-8,9 : 5-8 inches less as you head south of the Extreme Lower HV dotted line
This will be very high ration snow, so it doesn’t take much moisture for these accumulations to occur, also keep in mind that these accumulations falling over a 20-30 hour time period will lead to an extended period of poor travel. We will have more updates as the situation evolves, stay tuned.