•Wind Chill Warnings and Wind Chill Advisories are in effect across the region
•Watch for areas of ice overnight into tomorrow, as temps begin to refreeze earlier rain and snowmelt
•Be prepared for 36 hours of dangerously cold temps and wind-chills
•Temps will continue to plummet overnight to the single digits by morning
•Temps will only moderate a few degrees from the lows in the morning tomorrow, with highs struggling to get above ten degrees
•Westerly winds will continue to increase overnight and remain gusty through the day tomorrow, strongest winds across the Catskills
•Winds combined with low temperatures will create dangerous wind-chills from 10-30 below zero across the region
•Temps moderate to the upper teens and low twenties by Wednesday
•Temps back to above average by the weekend
From teens to forties, back to below freezing ,back to fifties with thunderstorms and down to single digits tonights, it has been quite a ride! Now that we are on the descending part of the temperature roller coaster, just how cold will it get?
I have seen some schools posting delays for the temps and possible icy travel due to the refreeze tonight; the fact is, two hours later isn’t gonna be much warmer, best we all be prepared. Lets take a look at what we can expect over the next 24 hours in terms of temperatures. First we look at tomorrow morning, below is the forecasted temps for 8AM on the North American Mesoscale Forecasting System (NAM). As you can see the regional temps are between -5 and 5 degrees, factor in winds out of the West and it will feel like -10 to -25 degrees.
Curious as to how much the temps moderate by the afternoon? Below is the NAM model forecasted high temps for tomorrow.
No matter how you slice it, tomorrow will be a cold day, so don’t think waiting a few hours will make the temperatures tomorrow any less dangerous, best to just dress the part, wear layers and don’t leave bear skin exposed. Frost bite can occur in a matter of minutes in these temps. Once you factor in the winds, which will be gusting out of the West at 15-30 mph, the temps become a notch more dangerous. Below is the NAM model forecasted winds and wind direction for tomorrow.
As you can see, the strongest winds will occur across the higher elevations of the Catskills, and the lightest winds in the mid hudson valley (you can thank our three to four thousand feet friends to the west for the wind protection.) It’s because of the higher winds that Western Ulster,Western Greene, Sullivan and Delaware Counties have Wind Chill Warnings, and the other counties have Wind Chill Advisories. Below is the National Weather Service (NWS) Wind Chill chart for reference.
Luckily for us the single digit highs won’t last more than a day, by Wednesday highs will be back into the upper teens and twenties across the region, which when compared to tomorrow, will feel quite tropical. Below is the projected highs for Wednesday on the NAM model.
The warm-up doesn’t end here, by this weekend and into next week we will see temps return to the forties as we enter a 7-10 day period of warmer weather. Relief is coming, we just have to get through this brief arctic blast, and we will be back to above average temps.