Jose continues to linger off shore, and that means our flow will still be out of the NE on Friday. All things considered, it should be quite a nice day.
Sunshine will mix with clouds, along with a NE breeze. The breeze will hopefully help keep humidity levels manageable, with dew points in the upper 50s. Afternoon highs will be about 5° to 10° above average, approaching 80° in the valley. But this is just the beginning of what could possibly be a late September heat wave (although it will likely fall a degree or two short).
This projection from the European model for Sunday shows Hurricane Maria east of the Bahamas, pushing North/northwest. We’ll have our eyes closely locked on Maria, to see if it pushes close to the North Carolina coast. As it stands right now… Jose is the only thing saving the SE US from a major impact from Hurricane Maria.
The massive ridge of high pressure over the eastern half of the US almost always steers hurricanes into the US. But the trough of low pressure created by the remnants of Tropical Storm Jose will provide an escape route for Hurricane Maria. A trough over Florida will provide a SW flow that will push Maria away from them, but that influence only extends up to South Carolina. From there… it’s up to Jose to capture Maria, and pull it off shore long enough for the next trough to push in from Canada, and then force Maria out to sea for good. We need a lot of things to happen, but the odds are better than 50% at the moment for Maria to avoid a landfall on the eastern seaboard.
But that same monster ridge over the eastern US that would normally mean a major hurricane for the east coast… will pump heat and humidity into the northeast, making it feel like summer. Record breaking heat is possible Sunday, Monday and possibly even Tuesday. So expect things to feel more like late July and early August.