Friday: A mix of clouds and sun, cold and breezy. High in the mid 30s [Catskills in upper 20s]. NW winds at 5 to 10mph.
Friday Night: Partially clearing skies, diminishing wind and chilly. Low in the mid 20s [Catskills in the mid 10s].
Saturday: Sunshine mixed with a few clouds. High in the upper 30s. Winds Calm.
Blustery conditions returned to the Hudson Valley on Thursday, as northwest winds picked up and howled thru the valley. Poughkeepsie’s high was 43°, but the wind chill was in the 20s for much of the afternoon.
We’ll head into the weekend with conditions that are very close to average for this time of year. The average high for this time of year is right around 40°… and most of the afternoon highs this week should be near or just below that. There’s nothing really ‘exciting’ to discuss between now and Sunday, feel free to check the 5 day forecast for details.
In the Thursday Outlook we took a close look at why the storm for Sunday won’t happen. So today, lets take a quick look at the potential on the table for next week.
Yesterday, we mentioned how fast the jet stream has been. So a major storm will develop next week, and affect much of the US. But before that happens, we have the image you see above. The energy that will likely form this weaker coastal storm Monday night, is not the same energy that was supposed to be our weekend nor’easter. Rather, it’s the energy that was behind it. That secondary energy… is now expected to develop just a bit as it races northeast. It could spread moisture into the Hudson Valley, but it doesn’t appear to be a major event. It is possible, that we see a light wet snow… but the situation is very tenuous, so lets just keep an eye on this system that is 4 days away.
Behind that first storm, develops a much… much larger storm system. This storm system… wherever it winds up… will jumpstart a pattern change, that will ultimately result in arctic air returning to the Hudson Valley around the New Year. As of Thursday night, here’s what the system looks like:
Such a complex setup going on here… that rather than ‘forecast’ what’s going to happen next week, we’re just going to give you daily updates on how this is unfolding. Currently, after the first storm pushes by Tuesday… the upper level low pressure over Michigan intensifies rapidly. At the same time on Wednesday, a secondary low pressure should form in the Southeast, with a lot of rain… and a lot of wind. That plows up the east coast, and should drag warm air with it. The whole thing should begin to exit after dark on Christmas Eve.
It’s a very complicated situation, not one that we see too often. The storm is going to be so strong, it should overwhelm the system and change the pattern… but one day at a time for now. Next week will be stormy, and it will be active. The big question is how it plays out. For that answer, we’ll have to keep an eye on it.
I’m beat. Putting together these posts is a project for sure, but I enjoy the heck out of it. With Hanukkah under way, now we’re closing in on Christmas, and I’m trying to figure out what the heck happened to December (or at least the first 18 days of it). Trying to get everything in order for the Weather Munchkin’s Christmas. It’s really the first one that she fully understands what’s happening… and holy cow is she excited. She’s going to have a blast… and we’re going to have a blast watching her enjoy it. So I better shut it down for the night, and get some rest. Have a great Friday… stay warm, and see you back here tomorrow.