Friday: Sunshine mixed with clouds, scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. High in the upper 70s to low 80s. Chance of rain 40%. Light SW wind.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with periods of rain likely after midnight. Low in the low 60s. Chance of rain 60%.
Saturday: Morning showers, possibly heavy at times, tapering off around mid day. Mostly cloudy during the afternoon, and cool. High in the mid 70s. Chance of rain 70%.
A busy weekend ahead for many residents of the Hudson Valley, so we’re going to take a look at the possibilities as we close out the work week. Friday starts us off nice enough. Friday, is looking similar to Thursday’s weather in many ways. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will develop in response to a departing low pressure system in Canada. They’ll be very scattered, but where they occur… a heavy downpour and gusty winds are possible.
Then we get to Friday night and Saturday morning. There is a bit of uncertainty with the forecast, and I’ll explain why using simulated radar (futurecast) images:
An area of moderate rain should develop across the Mid Atlantic states late in the day Friday and Friday evening. The NAM computer model shows the rain moving toward the Hudson Valley (circled) on Friday night (left image)… and then it clips the Hudson Valley with some overnight light to moderate rain. However by 2pm on Saturday (right image)… the rain has exited the area and mostly cloudy skies are left in it’s wake.
The big questions are: “How far west does the rainfall get?” and “How heavy is the rain associated with this disturbance?”
You can see that under this scenario, the Hudson Valley (circled) gets very little in the way of rainfall. The bulk of the steady rain remains well to our south… with areas from NYC on south & east getting the soaking rain. Most of the data supports this idea. The GFS, Canadian and other short range tools have the Hudson Valley getting a period of light to moderate rain, but it’s disorganized and short lasting (ending by mid morning Saturday). The one exception, is the European computer model, which is showing around 1 inch of rainfall by Saturday evening. It tracks the rainfall much further west than any of the other data.
So now you can likely see the reason why you may have heard several different forecasts for Saturday. While the day doesn’t look particularly nice under either scenario… you have the European model saying a heavy soaking for the first half of Saturday… and the rest of the data saying some scattered light to moderate rain, ending early Saturday morning. I don’t think the European can be completely ignored, but it’s clearly the underdog scenario. If anything changes, or becomes more clear… we’ll try to post an update up here.
This is the point in the post where I had planned to chat for a few minutes, but I’ve exhausted myself. So I just want to close with one thought. Wednesday night, I crashed. I fell asleep while putting my daughter to bed, and when I woke up from that, I went straight to bed for the night. When I woke up on Thursday, I checked HVW, and Alex had taken care of everything. That may not seem like a big deal to you… but for the 1st time in ages… I was able to fall asleep from exhaustion, and not wake up in a frenzy, rushing to post the forecast in the AM. Being a part of “Team HVW” is such a relief for me personally, for multiple reasons. But you guys also win… because if Alex or I get caught up with something life may throw our way… like sleep (haha)… there is someone to have our back, and make sure you get the information you need to plan your day.
And on that note… I will end this exceptionally long post. You long time MHW fans are used to my long posts by now… and you HVW fans will likely get used to it soon enough. TGIF everyone…