•Clouds and filtered sunshine this morning, will be replaced by moderate to heavy rain this afternoon. Heavy rain will continue overnight into early Sunday, with two to three inches of rain possible across the region
•Heaviest rain pulls out of the region by tomorrow afternoon leaving behind the threat of scattered showers and light rain for Sunday afternoon. Colder air tomorrow night may cause a period of sleet,snow or freezing rain across the region
•Sun returns to the region by late Monday morning and persists through Thursday, sun will be accompanied with warmer temps in the low to mid 50’s
A look at the current radar shows our heavy rain beginning to stream north towards the region, morning clouds will be replaced by rain by this afternoon, becoming heavier and steadier into the evening and overnight.
Here is the forecasted rainfall from the NAM model, as you can see a widespread two to three inches of rainfall is likely, with a few higher amounts not ruled out.
Now we take a look at a graphic from the National Weather Service called Flash Flood Guidance, basically what this shows is how much rainfall the ground can absorb in a certain amount of time, before causing flash flooding. For our region, this ranges from as little as 1.2 inches in six hours across Delaware County to as much as three inches across Putnam and Westchester Counties. These number increase for every six hours of time you add, so with this being almost a 24 hour event, the highest probability time frame for any flash flooding would be overnight tonight. Areas like Delaware County, Sullivan County, Western Ulster and Western Greene Counties will also have to factor in any snow melt that will occur across the Catskills, which will increase runoff as well. If you live in a flood prone area, or near any water that is prone to sharp rises,please stay tuned for any flood warnings that may be issued overnight into tomorrow AM.
Now a look at the forecasted rises on both the Esopus Creek and the Hudson River, all rivers and creeks across the region have a similar forecast. As you can see there are noticeable rises on both, but they are forecasted to only come near flood stage or reach action flood stage, currently the same holds true for all the creeks and rivers across the region, there are none forecasted to rise above action stage. Smaller creeks and streams are not monitored by this system and are especially vulnerable to flooding during times of increased runoff and isolated flooding cannot be ruled out. These are simply flood forecasts, and enhanced runoff from snowmelt in higher elevations, or heavier than forecasted rainfall could mean sharper rises on area rivers and creeks.