You could say that if you don’t like the weather in the Hudson Valley, to just wait 15 minutes, and next week may be a true definition of how quickly the weather can change. Let’s start with the good news, temps will spike to around 70 degrees on Saturday, mid 70’s on Sunday and upper 70’s by Monday. These warm temps will be accompanied with lots of sunshine and southerly winds, but don’t get to comfortable that spring has arrived to stay. By Monday night the first sign of the siege against our long awaited spring will show in the form of increasing clouds and developing showers. The clouds and showers will be developing ahead of a strong cold front that will be sweeping eastward towards the Hudson Valley by Tuesday. In the wake of this cold front temperatures will drop by anywhere from 30-40 degrees across the region with highs in the 30’s and 40’s across the region through Thursday. Temps look to potentially rebound by Friday into the weekend, with 50’s and 60’s returning to the region. Besides having our warmer temps pulled out from underneath us, parts of our region may also see some…………snow, yes I said it, snow may fall across parts of our region Tuesday and Thursday. A few of the issues with such a late season snowfall are ground temps, availabitly of cold air, and sun angle, all of which make late season “accumulating” snowfall both rare and difficult to forecast. In the higher elevations of the Catskills it is not uncommon to see late season snowfall, while snow down to the valley floor is much rarer. At the moment it appears this late season threat will follow the historical trend of confining itself to the higher elevations with some wet snow flakes possible down to the valley floor. We will need to closely monitor the data over the next few days as there are some models that are suggesting an accumulating snowfall across the entire region. The two shots of snow come first during the passage of the cold front as rain changes to snow as colder air rushes into the region, and again on Thursday when a wave of low pressure moves along the frontal boundary and spreads moisture into the region with cold air still in place. We are still 5-7 days out from this event so there will be many changes in the details over the coming days, with the only real certainty at this point being colder temps returning by next week.
Lets take a look at the temps across the region by Monday:
By Tuesday night you can clearly see the cold front approaching the region from the west with 30’s and 60’s only about twenty miles apart.
By Wednesday you can see the full effects of the frontal passage, with highs struggling out of the 30’s and 40’s, making the region feel more like winter than early spring.
We will hold off on sharing any of the model forecasted snowfall accumulations due to the high level of uncertainty and difficulty that exists with late season snowfall.