Good evening everyone, just wanted to do a brief update on the forecast after digesting some of the latest data. The forecast for the most part remains the same, the trend has been a touch warmer and the precipitation a touch slower. As we have been mentioning, it doesn’t want to snow in October, lots of players have to come together to make it happen, so its important to stay apprehensive of early season snowfalls, our forecast does just that. We still feel confident that areas north of i84 will see there first snow, accumulation’s will vary from nothing but seeing snowflakes falling, to a couple of inches across the higher terrain. The areas most likely to see accumulation of snowfall on colder surfaces are areas west of the Hudson River, where the precip arrives the earliest and of course the higher terrain. If you are east of the river or south of i84 this is nothing more that wet snow flakes that don’t amount to much, a rain/snow mix, all rain, or a quick burst of snow on cars and grassy surfaces.
This is not a major snow fall, travel issues will be limited to the higher terrain, and accumulations for the most part will be nothing more than some early season thrills. If the temps tonight drop lower than expected, or the precip arrives earlier than expected we may see a bit more in the way of snowfall, but not much more. Only areas south of i84 that see snow are the elevated areas of the Hudson Highlands.Start times still look to be between 5am and 9am from west to east. We will have another update late tonight as things continue to evolve, as always thanks for following and stay tuned.
- Timing: Precipitation overspreads the region from west to east between 5am and 9am
- Precipitation Type: Precipitation likely begins as snow across most of the region,exceptions being Rockland, Westchester, and Putnam Counties, parts of these counties may start as wet snow mixed with rain and sleet, before changing over to plain rain. Areas above 1000 feet will stay snow into the afternoon.
- Accumulations: Coating to an inch on colder surfaces for all areas below 500 feet elevation, only a trace is possible for areas east of the Hudson if precipitation is slow on its arrival time. For areas west of the Hudson River and above 500 feet, 1-3 inches is possible in the hill towns and foot hills of the Catskill Mountains. For areas above 1000 feet in the Catskills 2-6+ inches of snow is possible.
- Hazards: Snow covered roadways should be confined to the higher terrain of the Catskills, sunrise,warm surfaces and limited time/intensity of snowfall should confine accumulations across most of our region to only the coldest of surfaces.
- Rainfall: Aside from the front end snow threat, a beneficial rainfall is likely, up to an inch of rain will fall across the areas that do not remain snow, even some thunder in the heavier downpours is possible.
-Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for Western Ulster and Western Greene Counties-
Our forecast remains quite steady on our first region wide snowfall, this morning you can feel the behind the scenes setup of the high pressure to our north. Temps this morning across the region range from the upper 20’s to low 30’s, and will only rebound to the low to upper 40’s this afternoon. Clear skies will eventually be replaced by high clouds later today, and increasing clouds will increase overnight as low pressure approaches the region.Precipitation overspreads the regions from west to east from 5am-9am.
Precipitation will start out as snow across most of the region with the exception of our southern most counties where a mix of rain,wet snow and sleet may be the onset precipitation type before a change over to a cold rain. Elevations below 1000 feet will all change to rain by mid to late morning, therefore accumulations should be limited with only a coating to an inch on colder surfaces.
Areas where the snow begins earlier, (west of the river and slightly elevated) stand the best chance of seeing accumulations on roadways as well (less traveled ones), so some slick travel is possible in these hill towns. For areas above 1000 feet, snow will hold on into the afternoon, accumulations will range from 2-6 inches with higher amounts possible above 2500 feet. Roadways in these locations will become snow covered and hazardous.
In areas where precipitation changes to rain, it may be heavy at times with rainfall amounts up to an inch possible before tapering off on Friday evening. It will be a raw day, with highs still struggling out of the 40’s so dress accordingly.
One of the key elements with this snowfall threat has been the timing of the precipitation, which looks to be slightly before, or after daybreak. The timing is important because sunrise will bring diurnal warming and change the precip to rain in the lower elevations. The timing also impacts whether or not the snow will begin or impact the morning commute. As of this morning, areas west of the Hudson River will likely have the best chances of seeing any pre sunrise snowfall, areas east of the river look to hold of till after daybreak.We will be monitoring the timing of the snow closely throughout the day and will adjust the forecast as needed. October snowfalls have happened before but remain rare across the lower elevations. This is not a significant snowfall for our region, but the first chance of snowfall none the less. For the higher elevations, this will be their second pre halloween snowfall which is also rare, but happens. We live in NY and this isn’t last winter, so don’t forget to keep calm and weather on.