The National Weather Service has issued:
Winter Weather Advisory: The Entire Hudson Valley
- Snow begins between 1pm and 4pm on Tuesday.
- Snow possibly heavy at times during the early evening.
- Snow mixes with and changes to sleet between 7pm and 12am.
- Mix of sleet/freezing rain tapers off Tuesday night between 10pm and 1am.
- Areas of light freezing drizzle and fog last into the Wed. AM commute
- Tuesday PM commute potentially treacherous
- Snow should accumulate on all surfaces due to very cold temperatures.
- Snowfall rates up to 1 inch per hour possible during early evening.
- Reduced visibilities – during heavy snow, visibilities could be reduced to less than 1/4 mile.
- Snow will mix with and change to sleet & freezing rain before ending.
- Sleet (ice pellets) accumulation possible on top of the snow.
- minor icing (freezing rain less than 0.10″) is a concern.
- Icy travel conditions possible into Wednesday AM commute
- All Zones (Zones 1 through 9) : 2 to 6 inches of snow… followed by up to 0.10″ ice
- Best Chance for highest amounts: Zones 1 & 2, (upsloping could enhance snowfall)
- Best Chance for lowest amounts: Zones 8 & 9 (fastest changeover possible)
Just 3 days into the month of March, and we’ve already got our 2nd Winter Storm. A frontal boundary will approach from the west, and generate another overrunning snow event for the Hudson Valley. While a brief warm up is on the way… it arrives too late to generate rain across our area. Instead, we should see several hours of snow, followed by a period of sleet (ice pellets), before tapering off as a mix of light sleet and freezing drizzle.
Tuesday starts off harmlessly enough, just cold with increasing clouds. By mid afternoon, however… all that changes.
Snow breaks out from west to east, just in time to make a mess of the Tuesday evening commute. You’ll want to allow extra travel time for your PM commute, because the snow should be falling quite steadily at that point. An inch or two is possible by the time the sun sets.
That leads into the trickiest part of this forecast, and the highest “bust potential”. As the warm air surges into the Hudson Valley from the southwest… it will battle with the incredibly cold air in place. We’ll see an extended period of snow for certain… but the big question is, how fast does the snow mix with or change to sleet…
According to the NAM model… the sleet advances quickly into the Hudson Valley, shutting off the snow accumulation. Sleet is basically little ice pellets, and those pellets can accumulate like sand. In terms of the type of wintry precipitation… sleet is more treacherous than snow, but not nearly as bad as freezing rain (rain that freezes on contact).
If the NAM model is correct, and the snow changes to sleet early… then snow accumulations will likely be 1 to 3 inches. However… we think the snow should hold on a tad longer… hence the 3 to 6 inch snowfall forecast. Regardless of which idea is correct… the expected travel conditions are the same, treacherous roadways.
By just after midnight… the bulk of the moisture is exiting the Hudson Valley…
So as the temperatures approach (and rise above) freezing… the moisture is exiting the area. So much for that rapid warm up and rain storm. Temps on Wednesday do get above the freezing mark… but low clouds and fog could hold temps down in the mid 30s… we’ll just have to see.
An interesting set up is shaping up for Wednesday night into Thursday… as we could be talking about yet another snow threat. Tremendous uncertainty surrounds that system at the moment, and the exact location of a frontal boundary could mean the difference between some areas of light snow, and a possible significant storm. We’ll have more updates on this as we go thru Tuesday.
Complete forecast details are always available on the HVW 5 Day Forecast …. otherwise, have a great day!