Finalized Storm Timeline
- Snow begins between 12am and 4am from south to north
- Snow could fall heavy at times between 3am and 9am
- Snow could mix with sleet and freezing rain for a brief time well south of I-84.
- Snow may become lighter in intensity by mid morning
- Snow tapers off from west to east between 2pm and 6pm
Finalized Snow Accumulation
- Zones 1 & 2 : 2 to 4 inches (lower end totals to the north and west)
- Zones (Upper HV 3 & 4) and 5: 3 to 6 inches
- Zones (Remainder of 3 & 4), 6, 7 & 8: 4 to 8 inches
- Zone 9 : 2 to 5 inches, some mixing possible (higher amounts possible if dynamic cooling limits mixing)
*alternate snow map in progress…
Travel conditions across the Hudson Valley will be quite treacherous Saturday morning, as 1 to 3 inches are likely by sunrise. Snow will fall steadily for the first half of the morning, so expect low visibilities… as well as snow covered & icy road ways. Travel is not advised, but if you must… please be sure to use extra caution, reduce speed, and allow plenty of distance between you and the vehicle in front of you.
By late morning, visibilities may improve… but roads will continue to be snow covered and treacherous, and those conditions should last into the afternoon. Be sure to check for updates.
Our apologies for the delay in the final forecast. The evening computer models have had some interesting data that we have been sorting out. After all the analysis, we’re sticking with the snowfall forecast from earlier in the afternoon. The timeline has been tweaked just a hair… but also remains very close to the earlier forecast.
Snow will break out after midnight from south to north… and overspread the entire area by 4am.
A period of steady, moderate… to at times heavy… snow is likely between 3am and 9am. But what we have been analyzing closely tonight (and the cause for the delay)… is the latest idea that the western edge of the snow shield attempts to collapse on the Hudson Valley.
You can see the western edge of the snow falls apart by mid morning… which would give us lighter snowfall by mid to late morning…. but the snow shield tries to rebuild by lunch time, expanding once more to cover the entire area in a light to moderate snow…
These pieces of information caused us to consider the possibilities… but even with the scenario playing out as described above… we would still see snowfall amounts right around the ranges posted earlier.
The biggest points to take away:
- Areas north and west of Poughkeepsie have the best chance to fall short of expectations, especially if the snow shield collapses as the data suggests is possible.
- The southern most areas have the best chance to exceed expectations, as the rain/snow line could stay further south than expected, due to dynamic cooling as the storm intensifies.
We will update as the situation unfolds, both here and on the website… again, apologies for the delay in posting this, and thank you for your understanding and support. Be safe out there!