•Rain heavy at times through the afternoon and evening, tapering off from SW to NE between 6-9-pm
•Pockets of dense fog may hinder travel tonight
•Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for western Greene County and Delaware County, could see these extended to include more of the Catskills
•Transition to snow across higher terrain (above 1500 ft) this evening with 1-3 inches possible, especially across the Catskills
•Rain may end as a brief period of snow in the Hudson Valley North of PK no more then a coating expected
•Dropping temps overnight will lead to slick travel across the entire region
•Coldest air of the season will ring in the new year
•Monitoring potential winter storm for the later half of next week
As you can see from the current radar, rain has now moved into much of the region and will continue to push in from the SW through the remainder of the day.
Rain will become moderate to heavy at times, you can see in this simulated radar image from the HRRR model that by mid to late afternoon the intensity of the precipitation will certainly pick up a bit across the region.
Now in terms of the snow potential, the data continues to support the highest probability of snowfall occurring across the higher elevations of the Catskills, as you can see the HRRR model image below, it keeps snowfall across mostly the Catskills later today into tonight.
This does not mean snow won’t possibly fall in other locations, including the immediate valley floor. As it stands here is the HVW snowfall accumulation forecast for the region by zone, the trends will have to be monitored very closely and the accumulations across the lower elevations are very vulnerable to change.
• Highest Probability of Snow- Zones 1,2 Accumulations-1-3 Inches
• Medium Probability of Snow- Zones 5,6,4 (Above 1500 ft Elevation) Accumulations- C-2 Inches
• Lowest Probability of Snow- Zones 7,8,9 Accumulations- Trace/Coating Across Hill Towns and Highest Elevations
• Wildcard Zone- Zone 3 (North of Poughkeepsie) Accumulations- Trace to an inch