A quick updates on what we are thinking at this point for the remainder/second half of this system.
Short range model guidance continues to suggest that the squall line will not survive it’s trek towards the HV. We continue to monitor the radar to monitor the potential for this line to hold together. While this lull was expected (yes those are stars) we do need to monitor the potential that as the low pressure develops off shore it winds itself up so tight that the precipitation never makes its way back into the region. Either way at this point the forecasted 2-7 inches has been reached in a good part of the region albeit the lower end.
Models are not the best tool at this point in the game as they will not handle some of the smaller details such as banding and the inverted trough the we have highlighted as a wild-card over the last few days. These are details that you cannot forecast the placement of basically till they develop. If this storm does in fact wrap itself up too tight, and too late it is possible the the majority of snowfall across our region may be over. If the squall line does in fact hold together it will easily deliver another inch to the region. Then we will monitor the radar as the coastal low begins to rapidly intensify off the Jersey shore and attempts to build precipitation back into our region. All of these additional features will mean the difference for the region finishing at the low end or the high end of the forecast.
The short of it is, we also strive to keep you ahead of ALL of the potentials that exist, therefore we want to be the first to mention the possibility that this second half does not perform as it is currently being advertised. All of that aside, roads are slick across the entire region, very cold temps will lower the effectiveness of ice treatment methods, and increasing winds overnight will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow and reduced visibilities. These winds will also create dangerously low wind-chills overnight and through the weekend. Please visit the weather alert tab on the top of our website for details on all of the National Weather Service headlines in effect for our region.
For anyone interested in watching the second half of this storm kick into gear, please go to our website and go to the weather radar. Once there keep an eye off the Jersey shore to the eastern end of Long Island over the next several hours.