As we close the books on a warm and humid day across the region it should come as no surprise, seeing how last week and this week are climatogically the warmest weeks of the year for our region. Now we take a look at what impacts tomorrow’s cold front will bring to the region. The first thing we will take a look at is the atmosphere ahead of the approaching cold front, as this will play a role on what impacts our region may see. At the moment the main threat from tomorrows storms will be heavy rain, frequent lightning and damaging winds.
Below is a model depiction of what highs temps will reach tomorrow across the region, with low 90’s expected across the valley locations and upper 70’s and 80’s across the Catskills.
Next we take a look at the dew points across the region which are a measure of moisture verses air, the higher the dew point the more uncomfortable the air. Below is a model projection of the dew points across the region by tomorrow afternoon.
Here is a quick guide that also helps explain dew points and relative humidity and how it impacts your comfort.
The last thing we look at is something called CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) which in short is a measurement of the potential energy in the atmosphere if it were to be lifted, in this case the lift will come from an approaching cold front. This is basically the mathematical and nerdy version of saying the atmosphere is unstable.
Here is a quick reference on cape values and how the equate to atmospheric instability, as you can see our region is showing fairly high instability with the mod instability across the NE parts of our region, which is where the Storm Prediction Center has marked the best chance for severe weather.
As you can see the atmosphere will be sticky, warm and full of potential energy tomorrow as the cold front approaches the region, net up is a simulated radar that shows a line of heavy rain, with strong to severe storms entering the NW part of our region around 6PM. This line looks to clear the SE part of our region by around midnight tomorrow, although the severe potential will continue to decrease after sunset.
Any guess where the cold front is in this medal depiction of temp late tomorrow afternoon?
Now lets end this stick, steamy and stormy update with some good news, check out the dew points by Thursday afternoon! Much drier and more comfortable air is about 36 hours away with highs on Thursday may not break 80 degrees, so lets get through this next 24 hours.