Captains Log: I am reporting from a undisclosed location…….
We consistently had concerns with the final track of this storm, the impacts that a more easterly track could have verses a track to the west, we also had concerns the the storm would not make the loop which the coveted european model was consistently showing. Well….. the track went east, the loop never occurred and 1000’s of forecasts have been swept away with the dusting of snow you all woke up to this morning. Meteorology will always be an inexact science and we will always be near mortals attempting to predict the unpredictable, to corral the most powerful and untamed force on earth, thats why I love it!
This is what draws me and other forecasters to this science, the fact that its forever changing, the fact that 10 people can have 10 opinions on what the outcome of the same storm might be. If it ever became a science where our accuracy was 100% it would be the day that the passion dies. I have had a passion for the weather since I was about six years old and its one that has never left me. This passion led to HVW and HVW has led to this becoming a responsibility, one that I obsess over, one that I take very seriously. I know that at any given time over 300k people or more depend on and make their plans around what we post both here and on Facebook. Myself and Bill spend countless hours of free time in-between our careers, children, and a multitude of other responsibilities to obsess over being the best we can for all of you.
With that said… we are still like said above… only trying to rope in nature enough to keep you all just ahead of it, and that is why we paint all of the scenarios and outcomes that are possible and try to remain as grounded as possible when we forecast. Posting last night that the storm was not going to be what has been forecasted and lowering our snow estimates was an hour long decision, not something we came to easily, but we know it was our responsibility to be the first ones wrong if we weren’t going to be the first ones right. As many of you have supportingly told us “you didn’t bust, you told the possibilities from the beginning” we do realize that even our lowest thoughts on the storm were more impressive than the outcome, and some people will see a forecast off by even an inch as a bust.
For as long as forecasters are providing information that is so impactful to lives and commerce to the entire public sector with very little understanding of the science behind that information, we will continue to deal with the drama of key board warriors and critics. If thats the only downfall of watching something as beautiful as nature, and sharing with some of the greatest people in the world everyday, then sign me up………
As far as the remainder of the day goes, heres what we got.
While we are still under advisories and warnings for up to 6-12 inches of snow by the NWS, we fill that if the moisture does actually push west this morning into the afternoon, it will only produce light to possibly moderate snowfall totals. A general 2-8 inch snow fall with maybe a few higher spots seems much more logical at this point. No reason to believe this storm will discontinue its efforts to underperform the forecast so we will continue to monitor.
We realize there is a lot of extra milk across the region this morning and we would be glad to share a bowl of cereal with all of the lovely folks across the Hudson Valley. Anyone looking for the storm, please look to your east, just past the NY state line into New England. Snow up to 18″ has already fallen, drifts over cars and the ocean flooding costal towns across Massachusetts. A true reminder of what only a 50-100 mile change in storm track can do to a forecast.
Reports are coming in that travel bans are beginning to be lifted in certain areas, please check with your local government to determine if it has been lifted in your specific area. As a side note, attacks against HVW and forecasters alike will not bring the snow back, it would be much more productive for you to tackle your degree in meteorology. We realize that this was a major blow to the science and to forecasting in general and it will likely open the floodgates of criticism against what forecasters do. Kinda reminds me of the movie “The Weatherman” when Nicholas Cage is walking down the street and he gets hit with a milkshake, with that said, I prefer a chocolate frosty from Wendy’s.
Moving on, we have a lot of winter left to cover and our attention now turns to the potential for some more snow Thursday Night and agin early next week, as you can imagine we will try to tackle the storm thats two days away first, (seeing how even 12 hours in the future can obviously prove difficult) Then we will move onto what next week may hold.