As we put another storm in the books we begin to look ahead to what might be our next big weather story, a few things reveal themselves as we study the forecast guidance. Lets start with the certain, there is some impressively cold air headed our way. Below are two images showing the GFS model forecasted high temps for Saturday and Sunday, now this is only forecast guidance and not to be taken verbatim, but the consensus among all of the guidance is COLD.
Yes, you are reading this correctly, while it may be overstating the temps there is no doubt that temps will be well below normal to end the week with highs struggling out of the single digits and teens, and lows challenging 10-15 below or colder. If you were hoping for a break from the cold temps don’t hold your breath, long range guidance suggests below normal temps lingering through February.
Now lets talk about the snow potential that exists, this is where things become a lot more uncertain. We have fairly high confidence that a clipper system will spread some light snow into our region between Wednesday night into Thursday. The cold air mentioned above will be moving in behind this system and will mark a period of much colder weather. Below is the GFS model forecast showing this system spreading very light precipitation across our region.
Now here’s where things enter the realm of uncertainty, if you look directly south of the low pressure located along the northern NY and Canadian border you will notice another area of pressure forming as the energy from this storm attempts to jump to the coast. What happens next is something that is shown on a few different models but the timing and position have major changes on the outcome, the GFS model is the most aggressive. The newly formed low pressure rapidly intensifies into another coastal storm for New England and also brushes our eastern zones with light to moderate snow.
While this has the highest probability of being a storm for New England with only grazing impacts (if any) to our region we cannot ignore that the storms forecasted track shifted about 75 west in a single run on Sunday. With the storm being such a close call, we will need to monitor the data for any further shifts to the west. Parts of eastern New England have upwards of six feet of snow on the ground, this would potentially make a bad situation worse for these folks.
It doesn’t end there, we also have some model guidance trying to spin up another storm for Saturday into Sunday, this storm may follow the same track of the first and stay to our east, or it may be further south and west. We will obviously be glued to all of the latest data as it becomes available and keep you all informed as things develop. At the moment be prepared for dangerously cold air, and light snow Wed/Thur, these are the only two things somewhat certain at the moment.