HVW

Colder air has pushed into the Hudson Valley, but some even colder air is on the way.  We’ll see a mix of clouds and sunshine on Wednesday, with highs in the low to mid 40s.  SW winds gusting 10 to 20mph during the day will give us wind chills in the 30s and low 40s.

But this is out ahead of an approaching arctic cold front.  The front should reach the Hudson Valley between 3pm and 7pm, and it will bring some scattered valley rain showers, along with mountain snow showers.  But as the arctic front passes, snow squalls could reach even into the valley areas near sunset.

This could make for some tricky PM commuting on Wednesday.  Something we’ll try to monitor through the day.  But you should expect some scattered rain and wet snow showers late Wednesday afternoon and evening… followed by rapidly falling temperatures and frigid wind chills.  Low temperatures Wednesday night should fall into the low and mid 20s… with wind chills in the low to mid teens.  Make sure you prepare accordingly.

Spring may have started on Tuesday… but it’s going to feel very much like winter for the next few days.

Spring officially arrives at 11:06pm on Tuesday March 19th.  So naturally, winter will return on Tuesday.

A frontal boundary will swing through the northeast, as a deep trough dives southward from Canada.  This will bring a batch of very cold air south from Canada, and into the Northeast.  This will cause gusty winds out of the NW at 20 to 30 mph Tuesday afternoon, and by late in the day, scattered flurries and wet snow showers are possible (mixed with rain in the valley areas)

In addition to the blustery conditions generating lake effect wet snow showers… the winds will cause the cold air mass to feel sharply colder.  Temps on Tuesday afternoon are expected to reach the upper 30s and low 40s in the valley areas (mid 30s in Catskills).  When you factor in the NW winds gusting over 20mph at times… the ‘real feel’ wind chills will dip into the 20s and low 30s!!

It was only a few days ago when high temperatures in the Hudson Valley were pushing 70°, so this will feel like a bit of a shock to the system.  Wednesday looks cold as well, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 40s, before a reinforcing shot of arctic air dives into the Northeast on Thursday.  That will result in highs in the low to mid 30s Thursday afternoon… with wind chills in the 20s during the afternoon.

All of this sets the stage for a potential winter weather event for Friday night and Saturday.

Another trough dives south from Canada on Friday… and at the same time a coastal low pressure system develops in the southeast.  The details of how this system develops are still very unclear.  At this time, it looks like a period of wet snow is likely to develop Friday night into Saturday.  The main question that needs to be answered, is what happens on Saturday.  Most guidance suggests that milder air moves in on Saturday and turns the wet snow into a cold rain.  A couple inches of wet snow appear possible at this time… before a changeover to a soaking rain Saturday afternoon.  Some guidance brings a coastal low pressure up the coast along with a soaking rain for the I-95 corridor, but other models keep the low pressure offshore.  So, we’ll need to watch this closely over the next few days.

As far as Tuesday is concerned… let’s prepare for the arrival of Spring, with a return of a wintry air mass.

The storm system from Saturday has exited the region.  That will allow sunshine  and blue skies to return to the region.  For Sunday, expect clouds to mix with sunshine.  Northwest winds will be gusting up to 15 to 25mph, making afternoon highs in the mid 40s… feel more like the mid 30s across parts of the valley.

The chill intensifies as the night goes on Sunday night.  The NW winds gusting over 30mph at times, combined with temperatures falling into the upper 20s and low 30s.

This will make for a bitter cold start to the work week and school on Monday morning.  Temps recently have been very mild (roughly 20 degrees above average)… so this chill will feel even colder than it is.  With Monday morning wind chills in the teens and low 20s across the valley… and single digits and teens in the Catskills.

The chill extends into Monday afternoon… with the wind gusts peaking at 25 to 45mph… and locally 55mph in the Catskills.  This will ensure that afternoon wind chills on Monday afternoon don’t get much above freezing.  (despite temperatures in the low to mid 40s).  But big changes are on the way… with southwest winds returning on Tuesday.  This will warm conditions quickly across the Hudson Valley.  By mid week… we could see highs in the low to mid 60s across the Hudson Valley (roughly 20 degrees above average)

A taste of spring is on the way for the Hudson Valley by the middle of this week.  Hopefully some of you will be able to get out and enjoy it!

-Bill

Current Radar as of 5pm Saturday

Rain is pushing through the valley, and areas of light to moderate rain are falling as of sunset on Saturday.  Some wet snow is mixing in across the Catskills, with temperatures in the mid 30s.  2 to 5 inches of wet snow are possible are possible above 1500 feet in the Catskills.  Even there, the wet snow should change to rain as the mid level temperatures warm above freezing.

The Next 6 Hours…

A gap in the precipitation due to some dry air, is pushing NE into northwest NJ, NE PA and soon to be the Lower Hudson Valley.  This will likely cause rainfall to taper to light rain showers and drizzle between 5:30 and 7:30pm across the region.  But we do anticipate the radar to fill back in behind the area of dry air… and periods of moderate to heavy rain should re-develop between 7 and 9pm across the Hudson Valley.  Then moderate to heavy rain is expected to until midnight or so.

The rain pushes NE rapidly around midnight, and shortly after midnight the rain is projected to taper off…

Futurecast Radar : 2am Sunday

The rain should taper off between 12am and 3am from SW to NE.  From there we could see a few scattered rain showers or wet snow showers… as temperatures fall into the mid and upper 30s overnight.  Total Rainfall still remains projected around 1 inch on average, with some locally higher amounts possible.  That’s why the region is under a Flood Watch.

Then on Sunday we’ll see winds increase out of the northwest… giving us a blustery and cold Sunday afternoon into Monday.

Sunday afternoon wind gusts at 20 to 30mph, combining with temps in the low to mid 40s, to generate wind chills in the 30s.  Sunday night, temps fall into the upper 20s and low 30s… resulting in wind chills in the in the teens and 20s.  Monday looks blustery and cold, with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s… and wind chills in the 20s.  More updates as we move through the evening…

After a fully saturated Wednesday across the valley, with rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches on average… We’ll see the precipitation exit the Hudson Valley around sunrise on Thursday.  The steady rain should taper off before sunrise… but a few leftover showers and areas of drizzle are possible through the Thursday AM commute.  By mid-morning, the majority of the area should be mainly cloudy… but dry.  Clouds will linger through the day… with a few peeks of sun possible before sunset.  Afternoon highs on Thursday should be in the upper 40s to low 50s.

Friday looks to see some breaks of sunshine to close out the work week.  The ridge in the eastern US continues to hold, which means we’ll have a mild day on Friday.  Currently we expect a mix of clouds and sunshine… and highs in the mid 50s.

Next Storm System : Saturday Night / Sunday (mainly rain)

Clouds advance back into the region on Saturday ahead of our next storm system.

Rain is likely to develop by late afternoon or early evening on Saturday.  An upper level low pressure will drop in from Canada, and could bring enough cold air to result in high elevation wet snow, but this variable needs to be monitored in the next 2 days.  Periods of rain are then likely to fall through Saturday night, before tapering off Sunday morning.  The track and strength of the upper level low need to be monitored… but in general, around 1 inch of rain (precipitation) is expected by Sunday afternoon.

Temperatures on Sunday are likely to be in the upper 30s to low 40s… along with the roughly 3/4 to 1 inch of rainfall.  We’ll be monitoring this storm system closely in the next day or two.  Check back for more details in the coming days… otherwise, have a great Thursday!