•Conditions are becoming favorable for the Auroras reaching far enough south for the HV to view. Remember to look North and view from areas away from light pollution. See last nights blog for more details about the Aurora Borealis
•Approaching cloud cover may interfere with the viewing of Auroras if they manage to occur
•Light snow will develop across the region between 2am-6am and will lead to a slick morning commute. Less than one inch expected for the HV with more possible across the Catskills
•Some freezing rain possible tomorrow night before a change over to rain occurs
•Heavy rain on Saturday may lead to flooding issues, due to Ice Jams and increased runoff due to frozen ground
•Warm weather will continue into next week: the question: is how long and will stormy weather return?
The greatest potential for seeing northern lights would be this evening, the Coronal Mass Ejection that we referenced in last nights blog reached earth this afternoon. Only problem will be is if the Auroras do in fact reach far enough south for the Hudson Valley to see, will cloud cover have moved into the region, and potentially obstruct our view?
Below is the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model forecast of cloud cover this evening. It shows clouds moving into the region by 10pm. If we are lucky the clouds may hold off till just after midnight. Either way, if we are going to see any potential Auroras, we have a short window before cloud cover will end the show.
Moving on from the Aurora potential, the clouds that are moving in are associated with a disturbance that will cause light snow to break out across the region just in time to impact the morning commute. Accumulations look very minimal but with the ground continuing to be very cold, snow will accumulate quickly, and roads will likely become slick tomorrow morning. Below is the North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast for overnight snowfall. As you can see, accumulations are generally under one inch with the exception of the Catskills, where a few more inches may accumulate.
Light snow may linger through tomorrow morning before becoming scattered by the afternoon. Some light snow or freezing rain may redevelop tomorrow night, but the rapidly rising temps will change the freezing precipitation to rain overnight.
The next big story will be the heavy rain threat on Saturday. According to the most recent data, it appears that one inch of rain, to as much as two inches may fall across parts of the region. Below is the European model forecast for rainfall through Sunday:
This amount of rainfall on frozen ground will increase runoff to creeks, streams and rivers, most of which are also laden with impressive ice build up. This combination will certainly lead to issues with runoff flooding and ice jam flooding. Ice jam flooding can cause sudden and unpredictable rises of water levels. If you live near a waterway, or its tributaries, please stay alert to this potential. Below is a river forecast for the Esopus Creek. Note the sharp rise expected during the rainfall. Expect a similar with rises of bank water across the region.
Keep in mind that a frozen ground can lead to runoff water finding its way into places that are not typically prone to flooding. It appears that the heaviest rain will occur Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening, before tapering off.