Alex and I have been looking at the data together for the last couple hours, and we wanted to give you an update on the potential for strong to severe storms this afternoon. The morning round of showers and thunderstorms actually did us a favor this afternoon. While it’s warm and humid this afternoon (low to mid 80s and dew points in the upper 60s), when the storms moved thru this morning… they dried out the air at the upper levels (cloud level). So while it feels like a storm could pop up at any moment… the upper levels of the atmosphere are rather stable at the moment, and that’s why the radar remains quiet as of 3:00pm.
What to Expect:
Now thru 6pm: Much of the area looks quiet thru 6pm. However, there is the potential for one or two strong to severe thunderstorms to pop up across the area. These would be very localized, and could contain torrential downpours, damaging wind gusts, and hail. So while the majority of the region looks quiet and dry until this evening… it’s important to understand that the threat cannot be completely ruled out (30% chance).
6pm thru 11pm: As we head into the evening, the air becomes more conductive to storm development. These storms also look to be widely scattered, meaning many locations stay dry (50% chance). The main threat for storms in this window appears to be the lower half of the Hudson Valley (south of Poughkeepsie), but the entire area should keep their guard up. Storms that occur near, or prior to sunset could still be severe in nature, and threaten damaging wind gusts and small hail.
After 11pm: Near or shortly after midnight, it looks as if the upper level low pressure system and trailing cold front will make their way into the area. With it… will come a good deal of rain, and the potential for thunderstorms. We currently don’t believe these will be severe in nature (should that change we will update). There is a good chance that most (if not all) of the area will see periods of moderate to heavy rain, that could be accompanied by thunder. A very stormy overnight appears likely for the Hudson Valley… lasting into the morning commute.
We’ll take a look at the early hours of Monday again in a few hours… but Alex and I have been in contact since 9am this morning, discussing all the possibilities and areas of concern. We’re working together closely to make sure you have the information you need, and if anything changes, we’ll let you know. Enjoy the remainder of your Sunday afternoon…