•Try not to get sucked up in all the different snowfall forecasts flying around, have seen and had questions for everything up to 18 inches.
•As we have been stating the last few days, the final outcome of this storm will depend solely on the final position of the frontal boundary that will settle across the region over the weekend
•The trend over the last few days, including today has been for this boundary to push further and further south, this in return has shifted the axis of heaviest snow further south as well
•If the southerly trend continues we may only see a minimal amount of snowfall, if the boundary stalls out further north, it can lead to a much more significant snowfall, these details will become clearer over the next 24 hours
•At this point if you were to take the available data verbatim and create a forecast, it would be 4-8 inches south of I-84, 2-6 inches north of 84 to Kingston, c-3 inches north of Kingston. So when I see maps showing 8,12,18 inches across our region, I know that they are not based off anything that is currently showing on the models, those accumulations will only be possible if the boundary sets up further to the North.
•When these crucial details can be ironed out, we will put out a snowfall forecast to do so at this point would be nothing more than a shot in the dark. As of this post, if you do not want a significant snowfall you do not want anything to change, if you were looking for 6″+ widespread snowfall you are looking for a northerly trend over the next 24-26 hours, those are the facts.
Here is a look at what will eventually be our storm, it is quite impressive at the moment and has brought more rain to LA in the last 3 days than they have received in over a year! Once this storm comes ashore and more data can be gathered on it, we will see the forecast models really come to a consensus on the evolution of this storm. Problem is, we can’t ignore the fact that there is already a consensus that the heaviest snow will stay to the south of the HV, this can certainly shift north over the next day or two but you cannot simply ignore the southerly trend or the southerly consensus at this point. It is for this reason that anyone putting out an accumulation forecast at this point, may find themselves changing it a few more times before Monday. I do not agree with flip-flopping a forecast every 6 hours, better to be patient and put the right forecast out once.
Below are the most recent runs of four major forecast models for potential snowfall with the upcoming system, I ask that you compare them to any of the accumulation forecasts you have seen for the HV, and ask yourself why anyone would be forecasting us to be the bullseye for this system. Now like we have stated, that axis could clearly shift north and the HV could be the bullseye for a widespread heavy snowfall, but at the moment we are not, this is why we have not released a snowfall accumulation map. It is important for us to wait to see how the data trends over the next 24 hours as the storm comes ashore tonight, this will help us zero in on where the boundary will set up and in return where the heaviest snow will fall. Either way we should be prepared to deal with winter weather on Monday and we will work out the details as to how much snow may fall over the next 24-36 hours.