The back edge of the precipitation is approaching the Hudson Valley at this time, and will continue to move east over the next hour or two. Areas of light rain across the valley should taper off to drizzle, and our northern areas where freezing rain and sleet are falling, should see that taper off to patchy drizzle as well between now and 10am.
Temperatures are generally between 32° and 36° across the region, so travel conditions will continue to improve… this morning. There are LOTS of school delays, and even some closings, so hopefully travel won’t be too busy this morning. Main roads near the Hudson River are looking much better than the roads in the hill towns away from the valley floor… and the secondary roads in the hill towns are very slick. So make sure you’re aware of the conditions where you’re travelling this morning, and leave yourself extra time.
Early reports have snow amounts between 2 and 5 inches west of the Hudson River… but as you get closer to the Hudson River, amounts drop off rapidly. Lots of .5″ to 1.5″ of snow reports near the river near Newburgh, and over into southern Dutchess county. The warm wedge of air in the mid levels of the atmosphere kept snow amounts down in those areas.
Once we get through the morning… we’ll see mostly cloudy skies, and temperatures will push toward 40° in the valley areas… mid 30s in the Catskills. So we’ll see some melting for sure. Then our concern turns to possible black ice and refreezing (especially in the northern half of the HV). So that’s something we’ll watch for tonight.
It’s worth mentioning… that there is some BRUTAL cold coming our way for Thursday and Friday. If you want to get a look at that, check out the HVW 5 DAY FORECAST. It’s some of the coldest December weather we’ve seen in a many years, so make sure you’re prepared.
Rain/Snow line is progressing north at this hour, as expected the line is pushing north, reason for lower forecasted snowfall across our southern zones and areas east of the river was the warm air expected to infiltrate the region. Best guesstimate based on your observations is the rain/snow line extends from just north of Newburgh then it extends north even further into Dutchess with rain reported
Into central Dutchess, snowfall in these regions has capped of from a coating to and inch or two.
To the north and west of this line, moderate to heavy snow continues with as much as 2-5 inches in these areas, these areas were expected to stay snow the longest and therefore had higher forecasted snowfall amounts. We will continue to monitor the progress of this rain/snow line, keep in mind that the surfaces are still cold, and the precipitation on my has a few more hours before it departs, so road conditions even in areas that have changed over may remain slick for awhile.
Please keep the observations coming, they are helpful in tracking the change over line. Here is our ongoing snowfall forecast from yesterday. Keep in mind the lower totals may be even less with the current rainfall, once you wake up, as some locations are reporting heavy rainfall. We have seen some areas in the 1-3 areas fall shy of one inch, especially along the river, looking for reports so we can continue to grade and improve our forecasts. Thank You!
——–4AM Previous Update——
Moderate to Heavy snow is currently falling across post of the region, this burst of snow will help to reach our snowfall forecast in all locations. Despite the heavy snow, the influence of warmer air being pumped into the region is quite noticeable. As you can see, even our weather system in NW Ulster County is seeing temps begin to rise, although it is still only 26 degrees. Across our southern zones we have already seen some reports of sleet mixing in with the snow, this trend will continue and it will also slowly progress north.
Just how quickly this change over occurs and how far north the line progress by daybreak will determine if locations in the southern HV and along the river will hit the lower or higher end of our forecasted snowfall. By the time most of you read this, that process would have already occurred and what you see in terms of snowfall is what you will get. There is no doubt looking at the current radar and observations, that building our forecast around a slightly colder environment than the models were showing was the right call.
Use caution traveling just about anywhere in the region at this hour and into daybreak, even a change over to ice and rain will not instantly improve travel conditions, poor travel will linger a few hours past day break and longer across most of the region.