We’ve been pouring over the data this morning… as the back edge of the snow is rapidly advancing toward the HV. Here’s a look at the 10am Radar:
You can see on radar, the majority of the HV continues to see moderate to heavy snow (with areas of 1 to 2 inches per hour). You can see the back edge of the snow is continuing to press toward the HV on radar… but the big question is does that back edge push thru the HV and shut off the snow?
The data says No.
Check out the simulated High Resolution Rapid Refresh model (HRRR). This is the simulated radar as we head into the afternoon. It’s insisted since midnight, that as the back edge of the precipitation reaches the HV… it strengthens and rebuilds… prolonging the light to at times moderate snow thru the afternoon:
As of 1pm, the snow appears to be lightening up… and preparing to have the back edge push thru the HV. But as the coastal storm begins to develop well to our east… the precipitation shield re-intensifies just enough… to hold the snow over the HV thru at least mid afternoon:
This snow would be mainly light thru the afternoon… but the key is that the snow would continue thru much of the day. We’ve weighed the possibilities, and there is enough data to support this idea. It’s possible western parts of the area could see the snow taper off early this afternoon… but we think that much of the area will continue to see the flakes fly thru the afternoon. If this scenario plays out… here is the additional snowfall projected to fall after 9am this morning:
We’ll have additional updates thru the day… but it appears that the snow will hold over the HV. Should this scenario not play out as we expect… snow could shut off shortly after the noon hour. That option is on the table… but we feel it’s unlikely. Be safe HV… we’ve already got general reports between 6 and 12 inches across the HV.